If April showers bring May flowers, what do unseasonably warm temperatures in October bring?
If you’re talking about winter in Oregon, the answer is arctic blasts, apparently.
Pacific Northwest meteorologists and hundreds of weather enthusiasts gathered Saturday at the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry for the 30th Annual Winter Weather Forecast Conference, and they all agreed: Oregon should prepare for a stormy winter.
“After record-setting April snow and October heat, Mother Nature is really swinging from one extreme to another this year,” said Scott Pierce, president of the Oregon American Meteorological Society and KOIN 6 meteorologist. “It will be very interesting to see what is in store for the upcoming winter months.”
He and other meteorologists predict that surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean will be below average this winter. That means folks inland will experience what’s called a La Niña winter, the third in a row. This year’s La Niña conditions are expected to be weak or moderate, according to April Vogt, a meteorologist for private technology company WeatherFlow.
It’s rare to see three consecutive La Niña winters. The last stretch of colder winters was from 1998 to 2001, according to Vogt.
In the past, weak La Niña winters have brought an average of 6 inches of snow at Portland International Airport over the season, compared with 10.45 inches for moderate winters, Vogt said. She expects 3 to 9 inches of snow this year.
Temperatures are expected to fluctuate, but may be slightly over half a degree Celsius lower than normal, Vogt said.
Oregonians should be prepared for icy roads and possible “arctic blasts,” Vogt said. While an ice storm like the one in 2021, which left hundreds of thousands of customers without power, isn’t expected, it’s not impossible.
“To say that it would happen again, I think meteorologically is irresponsible,” Vogt said. “But I think we could have another ice event.”
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center expects temperatures slightly below normal and precipitation slightly above normal from December through February, according to Meteorologist Rebecca Muessle.
“The important thing to remember with that is that one month could be incredibly cold and the next month warm,” Muessle said.
Muessle said the weather service can’t predict for certain an overly snowy winter, but said that Oregonians should prepare for winter conditions.
“The best motto in my mind is prepare for the worst and hope for the best,” she said. “Definitely have your homes and your families ready for power outages, really cold temperatures, ice, things like that.”
On the plus side, these weather predictions bode well for Oregon’s skiers.
Much anticipated rain Friday brought cooler temperatures to Portland, even bringing some snow to Mount Hood, possibly allowing Mt. Hood Meadows to open earlier than planned.
– Austin De Dios; adedios@oregonian.com; @austindedios; (503) 319-9744
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