Acadiana is under an elevated threat for severe weather on Tuesday as damaging winds, strong tornadoes, and hail are possible. The greater risk will be across central and southeastern Acadiana late in the afternoon into the evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center introduced a “hatched area” for the tornado risk from I-10 and southwards. Black hatching means a 10% or higher probability for tornadoes rated EF2 or stronger within 25 miles of any point.
Level 1 to Level 3 risks are posted across the entire area. The SPC has a Marginal Risk for northern Acadiana with the Enhanced Risk in central and southern Acadiana which is considered a Level 3 out of 5 for the likelihood to see severe storms within your area. Enhanced Risk areas usually see numerous severe storms that are more persistent and widespread. The threat of stronger tornadoes is there too.
Futuretrack shows the severe threat starting to increase late in the afternoon after 3:00 pm to 4:00 pm as a potent line of storms moves in from Texas. This model forecasts the line of storms reaching Lafayette at approximately 7:00 pm.
The dynamics in the atmosphere to support severe weather are higher across central and southern Acadiana. The Significant Tornado Parameter showcases this threat with higher values from Lafayette to points southward like Abbeville, St. Martinville, and New Iberia. The STP takes into account the severe setup and predicts the likelihood of a tornado of rating EF2 or stronger forming in that area. This value has increased since yesterday and is much higher compared to the day New Iberia experienced an EF-2 Tornado in December.
Non-thunderstorm winds could be 40 – 50 mph, strong enough to cause some power outages and even blow down trees. Expect 1-2″ of rain, so brief flash flooding is possible.
As always, stay weather aware when there is a severe threat in Acadiana. Don’t forget to download the KLFY Storm Team Weather App and have notifications turned on.